Recalibrating Germany’s and EU’s Policy in the South Caucasus
von Stefan Meister
Veröffentlicht am 07. Juli 2010.
in: DGAPanalyse 2, Juli 2010, 16 S.
The European Union’s policy towards the South Caucasus is a typical example of the inability of its member states to develop a common policy towards the post-Soviet space. Furthermore, the EU has been slow to adapt to changes in the region, such as, most notably, the rise in power and relevance of Azerbaijan in the South Caucasus region. The failure of conflict resolution in the South Caucasus is also due to diverging interests between the member states and EU’s limited engagement in its neighborhood, which makes the EU policy towards the South Caucasus at the most reactive. First, the South Caucasus fuels internal European disputes on how one should develop a policy towards Russia, and its post-Soviet neighbors. Second, an ideologically charged debate about diversification of energy supply has unfolded in the Europe-Caspian discourse, without tangible results. Third, the region exemplifies a lack of a common Western – that is US and EU strategy – towards the post-Soviet space.
As a result, conflict resolution in this fragmented region has not yielded results in the last 20 years, and Russia, lacking its own strategy for the development of the region, uses the absence of a serious EU involvement in conflict resolution to prolong the status quo and control over the region. The three South Caucasian states are highly frustrated with EU’s weak and contradictory policy in the region. From the beginning it was a mistake to concentrate EU’s regional approach on Georgia, especially when it became obvious that the Georgian leadership failed in transforming the country’s strong western support into a clear political democratization, economic transformation, and national reconciliation.
There is an urgent need for recalibrating EU’s policy towards the South Caucasus. Germany can play a crucial role in setting in motion a new policy approach towards the region, but it is currently a weak link in the EU’s eastern policy debate. If Germany is unwilling to actively promote Eastern Partnership (EaP) policy the EU as a whole will fail to be a relevant player in the South Caucasus and the broader Caspian region. By default, a lack of influence means limited European access to Caspian energy resources, and the broader Central Asia market and consequentially the failure of democratization policy in the region. Germany has traditionally played a key role in all EU initiatives in the region, but has thus far been unable to consolidate its vision for the wider trans-Caspian region into a comprehensive strategy. The EU and specifically Germany should use the window of opportunity that opened after the Russian-Georgian war in August 2008 to develop a comprehensive strategy concerning the South Caucasus.
